Payback calculator

Two paybacks, side by side

The figure on the left is the one a brochure prints. The figure on the right is the one that survives twenty-five years of degradation, export tariffs, maintenance and one inverter. Change anything you like; both move together.

Run it on your own roof

Defaults are a six kilowatt array on a southern yield. On the fells we survey to between 950 and 1,100 kWh per kWp, so drop the annual yield before you believe the payback.

Payback, all in
22.5 yrs
A solar quote says 13.4 yrs, off by 9.1 yrs
What a solar quote leaves outAt 30% self-consumption, 70% of what your panels generate is exported at £0.05 per kWh, not used at £0.16 per kWh. Add panel degradation, tariff inflation, yearly maintenance and one inverter replacement, and the 25 year net comes to £3,534.
Quote figure13.4 yrs£1,344/yr
All-in figure22.5 yrs£547/yr
Payback in years, and year one saving after tariffs (and after maintenance, for the all-in figure). An estimate built from the figures entered above, not a quote.
YearGenerationAll-in savingCumulative
18,400 kWh£547-£17,453
58,233 kWh£649-£15,013
108,029 kWh£799-£11,328
157,831 kWh£976-£8,617
207,637 kWh£1,185-£3,124
257,448 kWh£1,435£3,534

What is under it

What the model prices, and what it cannot see

Priced in the figure

Generation from system size and annual yield per kWp, degrading at the rate you set from year two onward.

The split between what you use and what you export, at two separate tariffs.

Bill inflation compounding on the import side only, because export rates have not tracked it.

Annual maintenance, every year, for the whole twenty-five.

One inverter replacement in the year you name.

Not priced, and it matters

Half-hourly shape. This is a flat annual model, so a house that shifts load into daylight will beat it and a house that does not will trail it.

Batteries. Storage changes self-consumption, and self-consumption is the single most sensitive input here.

Grant schemes and VAT relief, which move faster than a template can track.

Roof condition. If the covering has ten years left, the array comes down and goes back up inside the payback window.

Your actual tariff on renewal day, which nobody knows.

Next step

Bring us the figure you were quoted

Send the array size, the install price and the tariff on your quote. We will run it through this model and send back the difference, whether or not you ever use us.

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